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by Stockholm Resilience Centre: http://www.stockholmresilience.org/21/research/research-news/8-5-2014-the-final-wild-west.html
Increasing exploitation of ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction present serious governance challenges.
Being
terrestrial creatures, much of our environmental concerns are focused
on the land, coasts and the atmosphere.
We tend to forget the sea,
particularly those parts outside the control of nation states.
In
a new study published in the journal Global Environmental Change, a
group of scientists from the centre and other institutions working
together in the international “Nereus Program - Predicting the Future
Ocean” draw attention to the unique governance challenges that face our
oceans and how the ‘high seas’ have been characterized as the last
frontier of exploitation on the planet, a figurative final "Wild West".
"It
was long thought that the open-ocean and deep seas were too distant to
be affected by technological innovation and changing markets, however
this is not the case. We are witnessing an increased use of ocean areas
located beyond national jurisdiction," says lead author and centre PhD
student Andrew Merrie.
Deep
sea mining, inhabiting the ocean, fishing of as yet undiscovered
species, geoengineering and harvesting of marine genetic resources are
all activities on the rise, making the future uncertain for the parts of
our ocean outside the governing jurisdiction of individual countries.
Trends in uses
The
argument is often made that humans are using the oceans in many ways,
but what does this use actually look like? Andrew Merrie and his team
collected and analysed much of the available information on human uses
of the oceans and how these uses have changed over time.
"We
used this data to create a graphical baseline which could describe not
only the overall human use of the oceans but also the emergence of new
users and unexpected dynamics linked to the way humans use the
oceans,"says Merrie.
These use and
exploitation trends included both those for living marine resource such
as fish and non-living marine resources such as oil and gas.
For
instance, the exploration depth for ocean oil and gas resources has gone
from less than five hundred metres in the mid-1960s to over three
thousand metres today. This is because of the rapid advancement of
technology that is enabling the exploitation of the deep oceans
potentially even in areas not under the jurisdiction of nation states.
"The
main conclusion of this trends analysis is that diverse resources in
these areas outside national jurisdiction are becoming more attractive
to a significant group of users and the technology that makes
exploitation feasible and economically viable is being developed. As
such, these users are sitting on the doorstep of these vast marine areas
and there are only inadequate governance mechanisms in place," says
Merrie.
Governing surprise - an oxymoron?
He
argues that it is time to move beyond just the user groups we already
know about and think about new users and other surprises that may lead
to unanticipated shifts and unique governance challenges.
The paper distinguishes between two types of such unexpected dynamics: 'Slow burning emergencies' and 'rude surprises'.
The
first level of surprise dynamic occurs where fragmented and
insufficient regulation in the high seas creates a "gold rush" effect,
where resource users are able to make large investments in technology
and exploit resources before governance institutions can react.
By
contrast, 'rude surprises' are situations where completely unexpected,
highly unlikely and largely unforeseen challenges may develop,
potentially within a governance vacuum.
"What
we see is that many existing institutions are not up to the task of
‘embracing surprise’ and that the emergence of transformative governance
institutions will be required to address these new challenges," he
concludes.
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