The challenges
The IEA figure of $20 trillion of investment may or may not result of what the IEA is forecasting for the next two decades. In fact this kind of forecasting, even if it is built on solid and accurate data, cannot be relying on. The reason (or reasons) for this is usually lies within various constantly changeable factors. These factors can range from the degree in which our climate is changing, the increasing of the earth's population, to the changing of politics worldwide, in particular when each individual country only concern with its own interests rather than the world as a whole.
All these contribute to a very difficult situation and can produce disunity, rather than the unity which is very much needed to solve the warming and the energy crises. Therefore, in the case of internationally vital decisions (where it concerns all of us on this planet), no country should consider their own interests alone, but rather how their decisions and laws/regulations may influence present and future global environment, in the short and long term.
Regarding the UK's future energy need, certainly there will be an increase in demand in this sector, and possibly higher than the figure of 30 - 35 GW mentioned in the 'White Paper'. The reason for this is simply because the UK population is increasing at a higher rate than at any other time in the UK history, according to the latest population survey and home office prediction. One of the reasons attributed to this is the number of East European countries which have joined the EU.
The possibility is that (for the next three decades) the UK will import most of their energy needs at a higher rate than ever before. Of course, this will depend mostly on the development taking place in the energy field within the UK.
Politically less stable parts of the world which may have higher fossil fuel reserves than the rest of the world should be encouraged constantly, if not directed and pressurised, to transform their unstable and unfair political systems into a genuine democracy, where every individual member of their society, regardless of their ethnic origin, religion, race or gender can have equal rights, including political rights. In this way, these unstable regions can form a much reliable and stable source of trade, in particular where energy trade comes into the picture.
In this way, the concentration of fossil fuel reserves should not be affected by the location or part of the world in which might be located, as long as there is a fair and reliable political system in those regions. If the West is sincere in this respect, then for their own future benefits they should not support under any form, directly or indirectly, any dictatorship and tyranny, by any means. Sadly, present and short sighted interests, as we see in daily politics, suggest that the reverse is the case.
The competition in itself, whether related to fossil fuels only or included within other types of environmentally friendly sources of energy, is good for the market and for the consumers. What this means is that more companies and/or businesses provide various types of fuels, the more likely the prices will fall rather than double, as the above report indicate. The increase of the prices of fossil fuels will only happen if there is nothing else available to compete with this kind of energy. As development in various parts of the world moves fast to find other alternative sources of energy, the scenario predicted then would not happen because of the factors mentioned in the 'White Paper' above, but rather because of the dwindling oil reserve and consequently the scarcity of this type natural resources in the future.
Najib Altawell
Altawell © 2009
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